How much are food prices up since the last election?

The Irish economy may be racing ahead - but so too are food prices.

And this may have tempered any enthusiasm for the success in other ways of Government policies.

Bill Clinton's motto was "It's the economy stupid" during his successful 1992 election. But in Irish, and probably US, elections, home economics was more to the fore.

Our survey shows voters are not wrong about feeling the pinch at the supermarket tills.

A typical basket of everyday items drawn from the Central Statistics Offices list of basics cost €237 in February 2020 before the last election.

Now the same foodstuffs would set you back €277 after  a 17% rise - far more than basic wages.

Also not helping the Government’s cause is a sharp rise in the price of a pint, which broke the five euro barrier during its term in office.

In February 2020, a pint of stout cost €4.67 on average. 

In October 2024, the national average price of a pint of the black stuff in a pub was €5.82, up 20 cents in the year - and up €1.15 on this Government’s watch.

A pint of lager cost €6.25 in October, up 19 cents compared with last year and €1-plus during Mr Harris’s reign.

So these most sensitive of price-barometers rose by 25% - or nearly double the rate of inflation over the equivalent period (13.7%).

But it’s the basics like eggs, sugar, bread and meat – up by nearly two thirds in some cases – that have caught voter attention and may yet make a difference in the polls.

Sugar has seen the biggest price rise since 2020 - on top of a Government-tax slapped on it earlier.

A 2kg bag  has soared 63% in price – up from €1.15 in 2020 to €1.88 last month.

The next highest jump was a 46% rise in the cost of spaghetti followed by tinned tomatoes (45%).

Taken together those two hikes - plus a jump in the price of mince meat - will make the basic family staple of spaghetti bolognaise a lot more expensive.

Half a dozen large eggs cost €1.74 in February 2020.  

Today you’d have to pay €2.44 after a hefty 40% hike.

The cost of anot

her basic - the ham sandwich - has also jumped with butter up 41% and bread costing a quarter more since February 2020.

A 7% rise in the cost of ham is relatively benign but will also add to its cost.

Meat price rises in the intra-election period tended to vary wildly.

The cost of diced beef rose just 1% to €10.69 a kilo, while pork loin chops will set you back 11% more today at €8.84 a kilo than you’d have paid in 2020.

But that Sunday lunch staple, a leg of lamb, racked up a 28% hike - the highest for meat - to €14.35 a kilo on average.

Chicken jumped 21% in price to €5.84 on average for a whole one. 

Yet this is still relatively good value compared to red meats like Striploin steak (€23.51/kg) and lamb chops (€22.76) which jumped even more in price.

The CSO reported recently that inflation eased pressure on basic items: “The national average price for bread (large (800g) white sliced pan) was down 4 cents in the year to October 2024, while the same size brown sliced pan reduced by 2 cents in the year.”

“Spaghetti per 500g decreased by 4 cents in the year, while the average price for 2.5kg of potatoes was up 31 cents.”

Despite this, the clear winner in a recent poll of voter issues was the cost of living with 30% of people voicing this as their chief concern in a recent poll buy The Irish Times and Ipsos.

This has been echoed on social media, where, for example,  actor Rory Cowan of Mrs Browns’ Boys fame tweeted this week: “I just came back from my local Centra. Now normally I’d buy a few things and just pay the total. I never take notice of the price of the individual items. But today I only needed bread so I picked up a Brennans Half Pan. The guy at the till scanned it and said €1.80. EEK! €1.80 for a half pan? How do people with children manage?"

The reasons behind the soaring cost of food include the war in Ukraine  restricting supplies of cereals and grain used to make flour and feed animals such as chickens.

Climate change also played a role as a succession of draughts hit production across the globe.

All of these factors have little to do with Government policy. 

Yet that didn’t stop US voters kicking Joe Biden out of office largely over cost-of-living concerns despite a similarly booming US economy.

Recent sharp reductions in the pace of inflation – just 0.7% in the year to October –doesn’t seem to be getting through to voters either as past price hikes are ‘baked in’ to current high prices.

Just as the “Bidenomics” behind a US boom didn’t dissuade US voters from opting for Trump, our extraordinary economic performance doesn’t seem to be ‘cutting much ice with voters.

The unemployment rate of 4.1% is near the record low (3.8%) while the Exchequer is buoyed up by tens of billions in extra corporate tax revenue.

All of the items chosen for our survey feature in the sample basket of foodstuffs monitored to measure inflation by the Central Statistics Office.

However, the ‘typical basket’ used by the CSO includes many more meat and alcohol items, some of which we excluded to provide a more representative selection of foodstuffs chosen by today’s shoppers.