Safe havens for your cash as war and chaos erupt
- Bill Tyson
- Jul 21
- 4 min read
Global conflict and economic chaos are erupting everywhere…and investors are running for cover.
But where should we put our money as both trade wars and actual wars disrupt investment performance?
Traditional safe havens include gold and the dollar…while crypto currency Bitcoin is the new kid on the block(chain).
Or should we just stick our money in the bank and hope for the best?
A new analysis of safe-haven investments this week revealed how they actually perform when it comes to the crunch - and which ones offer the most reliable protection.
And we’ve compared the results to some everyday Irish bank accounts – with some surprising results.
So which assets are truly delivering safety in troubled times?
“Traditional safe havens are showing cracks – gold’s legendary reliability wavered during Operation Rising Lion (the Israel-Iran war), and the dollar’s strength is no longer a given,” says a new report from the Investors Observer newsletter and website.
Meanwhile, “digital assets like Bitcoin are entering the safe haven debate, with mixed but increasingly relevant results.
The Investors Observer's research team analysed the performance of the dollar, gold and bitcoin – during and after four major events: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait (1990), 9/11 terrorist attacks (2001), Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022), Iran’s missile attack on Israel (2024), and Israel's attack on Iran (2025), also known as Operation Rising Lion.
The study also includes Operation Rising Lion (2025), a recent military escalation between Israel and Iran.
Gold
Gold is the oldest ‘safe haven’ in the world. And it has proved its worth averaging 0.30% gains in the first week and 8.98% over 12 months across historical conflicts.
During crises, physical demand from investors surges while central bank ramp up their holdings of gold, driving up demand – and prices.
This amplifies returns during prolonged tensions, exemplified by the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict when gold surged by 35.8% annually.
However, gold’s status fractured a year later during Operation Rising Lion, declining 3.17% despite a rally by the S&P stock market.
“Gold’s reliability is contingent on conflict duration and the availability of competing havens,” concluded the Investors’ Observer.
U.S. Dollar
The dollar is the ‘go-to’ safe haven currency in times of conflict with the US economic powerhouse seen as a sanctuary for investors.
However, that perception was not borne out by the actual performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback, according to the IO.
“Contrary to assumptions of dollar strength during crises, the DXY averaged a 0.19% 1-month decline historically, with mixed results across events,” its report said.
“For instance, it fell 5.7% during the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict as investors favoured gold and oil, while rising 11.9% in the Ukraine War’s first six months due to aggressive Fed rate hikes.”
During Operation Rising Lion, the DXY dipped 0.30%, extending its inconsistent crisis performance. The dollar also has been undermined further in recent times by the chaos of Donald Trump’s presidency, including placing political pressure on the head of the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank), which undermines currency strength.
Bitcoin
Digital currency bitcoin wasn’t around for two of the four conflicts studied.
And it was extremely volatile during the other two, plunging 43.3% over six months after Russia invaded Ukraine but gaining 32.1% in the year following the 2024 Iran-Israel strikes, according to Investors’ Observer.
Performance of ‘safe havens’ in times of crisis – based on average increase over several recent conflicts including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran Israel war.
Conclusion
The upshot of the analysis is that ‘safe havens’ may provide a refuge in times of crisis but they won’t give much growth and may decline in value after a year – with the exception of gold.
How do banks rate?
So what other options are there? Should we just leave our money on deposit in the bank?
Our readers will know we’re no fan of run-of-the-mill ‘on demand’ Irish deposit accounts.
These provide derisory returns as low as 0.01% (take an ironic bow PSTB!) on the €142 billion we unwisely hold in them.
All that lovely dosh will decline by over €2.6bn every year as inflation of around 2% erodes its buying power.
Irish banks ‘on demand’ deposits
Source: Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (www.CCPC.ie). Rates correct on 9/7/25
However, if you give even a cursory glance at what interest rates are available elsewhere - even in the same local bank - you can do a heck of a lot better than that.
In fact, you can earn 200 times more interest than the worst on-demand accounts with SOME fixed term deposits.
Check our selected fixed term deposit rates below. They still knock the socks off on-demand money and beat three of the four so-called ‘safe havens’ – based on the recent IO study.
AIB, Bank of Ireland and PTSB STILL offer rates above 2% over 18 months to two years.
(And, yes, even 2% interest is 200 times better than PTSB’s 0.01%!)
AIB and Bank of Ireland’s 2yr fixed rates are even higher than what banks earn when they deposit money with the European Central Bank.
There are also a couple of 2%-plus rates available on demand from digital banks like BUNQ and Raisin.ie, which scours the best deals across Europe.
But all of these rates are unlikely to last long – so grab them while you can!
Best Irish deposit rates
Source: Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (www.CCPC.ie).Based on €20,000 lump sum placed on deposit. Rates correct on 9/7/25
Comments